Rainfall in the urban area and its impact on climatology and population growth

Lua da Silva Monteiro, José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior, Bushra Ghaffar, Aqil Tariq*, Shujing Qin*, Faisal Mumtaz, Washington Luiz Félix Correia Filho, Munawar Shah, Alexandre Maniçoba da Rosa Ferraz Jardim, Marcos Vinicius da Silva, Dimas de Barros Santiago, Heliofábio Gomes Barros, David Mendes, Marcel Carvalho Abreu, Amaury de Souza, Luiz Cláudio Gomes Pimentel, Jhon Lennon Bezerra da Silva, Muhammad Aslam, Alban Kuriqi

*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

Due to the scarcity of studies linking the variability of rainfall and population growth in the capital cities of Northeastern Brazil (NEB), the purpose of this study is to evaluate the variability and multiscale interaction (annual and seasonal), and in addition, to detect their trends and the impact of urban growth. For this, monthly rainfall data between 1960 and 2020 were used. In addition, the detection of rainfall trends on annual and seasonal scales was performed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and compared with the phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The relationship between population growth data and rainfall data for different decades was established. Results indicate that the variability of multiscale urban rainfall is directly associated with the ENSO and PDO phases, followed by the performance of rain-producing meteorological systems in the NEB. In addition, the anthropic influence is shown in the relational pattern between population growth and the variability of decennial rainfall in the capitals of the NEB. However, no capital showed a significant trend of increasing annual rainfall (as in the case of Aracaju, Maceió, and Salvador). The observed population increase in the last decades in the capitals of the NEB and the notable decreasing trend of rainfall could compromise the region’s water security. Moreover, if there is no strategic planning about water bodies, these changes in the rainfall pattern could be compromising.
Original languageEnglish
Article number1610
Number of pages21
JournalAtmosphere
Volume13
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2022

Keywords

  • NEB
  • urban rainfall
  • meteorological systems
  • population growth

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