TY - JOUR
T1 - Rainfall in the urban area and its impact on climatology and population growth
AU - Monteiro, Lua da Silva
AU - de Oliveira-Júnior, José Francisco
AU - Ghaffar, Bushra
AU - Tariq, Aqil
AU - Qin, Shujing
AU - Mumtaz, Faisal
AU - Filho, Washington Luiz Félix Correia
AU - Shah, Munawar
AU - Jardim, Alexandre Maniçoba da Rosa Ferraz
AU - da Silva, Marcos Vinicius
AU - Santiago, Dimas de Barros
AU - Barros, Heliofábio Gomes
AU - Mendes, David
AU - Abreu, Marcel Carvalho
AU - de Souza, Amaury
AU - Gomes Pimentel, Luiz Cláudio
AU - Bezerra da Silva, Jhon Lennon
AU - Aslam, Muhammad
AU - Kuriqi, Alban
PY - 2022/10/1
Y1 - 2022/10/1
N2 - Due to the scarcity of studies linking the variability of rainfall and population growth in the capital cities of Northeastern Brazil (NEB), the purpose of this study is to evaluate the variability and multiscale interaction (annual and seasonal), and in addition, to detect their trends and the impact of urban growth. For this, monthly rainfall data between 1960 and 2020 were used. In addition, the detection of rainfall trends on annual and seasonal scales was performed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and compared with the phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The relationship between population growth data and rainfall data for different decades was established. Results indicate that the variability of multiscale urban rainfall is directly associated with the ENSO and PDO phases, followed by the performance of rain-producing meteorological systems in the NEB. In addition, the anthropic influence is shown in the relational pattern between population growth and the variability of decennial rainfall in the capitals of the NEB. However, no capital showed a significant trend of increasing annual rainfall (as in the case of Aracaju, Maceió, and Salvador). The observed population increase in the last decades in the capitals of the NEB and the notable decreasing trend of rainfall could compromise the region’s water security. Moreover, if there is no strategic planning about water bodies, these changes in the rainfall pattern could be compromising.
AB - Due to the scarcity of studies linking the variability of rainfall and population growth in the capital cities of Northeastern Brazil (NEB), the purpose of this study is to evaluate the variability and multiscale interaction (annual and seasonal), and in addition, to detect their trends and the impact of urban growth. For this, monthly rainfall data between 1960 and 2020 were used. In addition, the detection of rainfall trends on annual and seasonal scales was performed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and compared with the phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The relationship between population growth data and rainfall data for different decades was established. Results indicate that the variability of multiscale urban rainfall is directly associated with the ENSO and PDO phases, followed by the performance of rain-producing meteorological systems in the NEB. In addition, the anthropic influence is shown in the relational pattern between population growth and the variability of decennial rainfall in the capitals of the NEB. However, no capital showed a significant trend of increasing annual rainfall (as in the case of Aracaju, Maceió, and Salvador). The observed population increase in the last decades in the capitals of the NEB and the notable decreasing trend of rainfall could compromise the region’s water security. Moreover, if there is no strategic planning about water bodies, these changes in the rainfall pattern could be compromising.
KW - NEB
KW - urban rainfall
KW - meteorological systems
KW - population growth
U2 - 10.3390/atmos13101610
DO - 10.3390/atmos13101610
M3 - Article
SN - 2073-4433
VL - 13
JO - Atmosphere
JF - Atmosphere
IS - 10
M1 - 1610
ER -