How different are assessments of independence and devolution max? An analysis of the role of national identity and party affiliation

Arno Van Der Zwet, Craig McAngus

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Although the actual constitutional preferences of the Scottish public have been analysed at great length, the assessments of how different constitutional scenarios will perform in future have received little attention. This paper aims to address this by examining how well the public think an independent and a devolution max (DevoMax) Scotland will perform, looking specifically at the role of national identity and party affiliation. Factor analysis is used to construct a latent ‘performance assessment’ variable, and this latent variable is used extensively in the analysis. The paper finds that, on the whole, there is little difference between performance assessments of independence and DevoMax. However when considering national identity it can be seen that although Scottish identifiers by and large assess independence and DevoMax equally, strong British identifiers do not; they are considerably less negative about DevoMax. Furthermore, although the patterns of performance assessment are unsurprising in terms of party affiliation, Labour affiliates are, on the whole, more positive about the future performance of an independent Scotland than might have been expected. Furthermore, linear regression shows that the ‘identity’ variables have a more powerful effect on perceptions of independence than DevoMax. These findings suggest that an element of ‘heuristic shortcutting’ might be taking place.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-26
Number of pages26
JournalScottish Affairs
Volume23
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2014
Externally publishedYes

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national identity
decentralization
performance assessment
heuristics
factor analysis
labor
scenario
regression
performance

Keywords

  • Scottish Independence, Scottish identity, Scottish politics, devolution, Scottish public attitudes, political parties

Cite this

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abstract = "Although the actual constitutional preferences of the Scottish public have been analysed at great length, the assessments of how different constitutional scenarios will perform in future have received little attention. This paper aims to address this by examining how well the public think an independent and a devolution max (DevoMax) Scotland will perform, looking specifically at the role of national identity and party affiliation. Factor analysis is used to construct a latent ‘performance assessment’ variable, and this latent variable is used extensively in the analysis. The paper finds that, on the whole, there is little difference between performance assessments of independence and DevoMax. However when considering national identity it can be seen that although Scottish identifiers by and large assess independence and DevoMax equally, strong British identifiers do not; they are considerably less negative about DevoMax. Furthermore, although the patterns of performance assessment are unsurprising in terms of party affiliation, Labour affiliates are, on the whole, more positive about the future performance of an independent Scotland than might have been expected. Furthermore, linear regression shows that the ‘identity’ variables have a more powerful effect on perceptions of independence than DevoMax. These findings suggest that an element of ‘heuristic shortcutting’ might be taking place.",
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How different are assessments of independence and devolution max? An analysis of the role of national identity and party affiliation. / Van Der Zwet, Arno; McAngus , Craig .

In: Scottish Affairs, Vol. 23, No. 1, 01.02.2014, p. 1-26.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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