Bayesian updating of uncertainties in the stability analysis of natural slopes in sensitive clays

Ivan Depina*, Cecilia Ulmke, Djamalddine Boumezerane, Vikas Thakur

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

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Abstract

Safety assessment of natural slopes in sensitive clays is subjected to uncertainty due to the natural variation of soil properties, measurement and modelling errors. In order to ensure acceptable safety levels, geotechnical design codes (e.g., Eurocode 7) commonly provide frameworks for a systematic treatment of uncertainties in the safety assessment of a slope. The treatment of uncertainties in the design codes is primarily focused on the parameters directly involved in the analysis of the mechanical stability of a slope (e.g., soil strength parameters). Additional valuable contributions to the safety assessments of slopes can be also provided by information that relates indirectly to the mechanical stability of a slope (e.g., past slope performance). However, there is often a lack of systematic integration of indirect information in the existing design codes. This paper examines the integration of indirect information based on the observed past slope performance in the safety assessment of a slope. The integration is facilitated through the Bayesian framework because it provides a basis to update uncertainties in the slope stability and safety assessment, such that they are consistent to the observed slope performance. The paper examines the effects of slope survival and failure events on uncertainties in the slope stability analysis.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationLandslides in Sensitive Clays
Subtitle of host publicationFrom Research to Implementation
EditorsVikas Thakur, Jean-Sébastien L'Heureux, Ariane Locat
PublisherSpringer International Publishing AG
Pages203-212
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9783319564876
ISBN (Print)9783319564869
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 24 May 2017
Externally publishedYes

Publication series

NameAdvances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research
PublisherSpringer International Publishing AG
Volume46
ISSN (Print)1878-9897
ISSN (Electronic)2213-6959

Keywords

  • Failure probability
  • Slope stability
  • Safety assessment
  • Bayesian framework
  • Slope stability analysis

Cite this

Depina, I., Ulmke, C., Boumezerane, D., & Thakur, V. (2017). Bayesian updating of uncertainties in the stability analysis of natural slopes in sensitive clays. In V. Thakur, J-S. L'Heureux, & A. Locat (Eds.), Landslides in Sensitive Clays: From Research to Implementation (pp. 203-212). (Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research; Vol. 46). Springer International Publishing AG. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-56487-6_18